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I'm willing to bet that we could have converter boxes for <$20 right now
if Congress hadn't come up with that coupon plan.
After all, if you know for a fact that every item you sell has a $40
discount, doesn't it make sense to sell it for $40+x?
On another note, Congress decided to delay the transition because some
people aren't ready*. Well, guess what? There are ALWAYS going to be
people who aren't ready. Considering they've been talking about the
switch from analog to digital for more than 10 years, if anyone isn't
ready by now it's NOT because they're ignorant. They're either too
stupid to make the switch on their own, or they just don't care. In
either case, delaying the switch won't make a difference.
*All the bill really does is *allow* stations to delay. They can still
switch if they like, and many of them will, to save electricity.
--
...Chambers
www.pacificwebguy.com
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Chambers wrote:
> On another note, Congress decided to delay the transition because some
> people aren't ready*.
Actually, my understanding is they delayed the bill because they didn't have
enough money for all the $40 coupons they expect people to ask for. :-)
> *All the bill really does is *allow* stations to delay. They can still
> switch if they like, and many of them will, to save electricity.
And all the planning is already done and such, too. It's not like you can
call up the manufacturer 2 weeks in advance and un-order the
half-million-dollar machine.
--
Darren New, San Diego CA, USA (PST)
"Ouch ouch ouch!"
"What's wrong? Noodles too hot?"
"No, I have Chopstick Tunnel Syndrome."
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Chambers <ben### [at] pacificwebguy com> wrote:
> I'm willing to bet that we could have converter boxes for <$20 right now
> if Congress hadn't come up with that coupon plan.
I can't imagine getting the switch approved, though, if they weren't basically
given to people. You're right. Some just won't make the switch, but many more
wouldn't if they actually had to pay a heftier fee for it. a) Converter box for
$20. I don't want to spend that. b) Converter box for $60. Coupon for $40.
Wow! That's a big discount and I have this coupon, so I may as well use it.
> or they just don't care.
Bingo. Closet, meet TV. TV, closet.
- Ricky
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On 2/14/2009 3:02 PM, Darren New wrote:
> Chambers wrote:
>> On another note, Congress decided to delay the transition because some
>> people aren't ready*.
>
> Actually, my understanding is they delayed the bill because they didn't
> have enough money for all the $40 coupons they expect people to ask for.
> :-)
All that does is delay the release of additional coupons. They budgeted
a certain amount of money for them, and now enough coupons have been
sold that they can't authorize any more.
Although, as older coupons expire, they can issue new ones without any
additional funds. Depending on demand, Congress may or may not
authorize funding additional coupons.
>> *All the bill really does is *allow* stations to delay. They can still
>> switch if they like, and many of them will, to save electricity.
>
> And all the planning is already done and such, too. It's not like you
> can call up the manufacturer 2 weeks in advance and un-order the
> half-million-dollar machine.
Sure, but most of the TV stations have already been broadcasting in
digital alongside analog for some time. What's really (supposed to be)
happening on the 19th is that the analog signal will be switched off,
*not* that the digital signal will be switched on.
--
...Chambers
www.pacificwebguy.com
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Chambers wrote:
> I'm willing to bet that we could have converter boxes for <$20 right now
> if Congress hadn't come up with that coupon plan.
>
> After all, if you know for a fact that every item you sell has a $40
> discount, doesn't it make sense to sell it for $40+x?
Nope. Let's say that without the coupon program, the only way to be
profitable was to sell it at $45.
Now you could just add $40 to the cost because of the coupons. But then
some competitor will offer it for only $60 - and ultimately you'll be
back to $45.
Your analysis made the assumption that they *could* have been
profitable by selling it at less than $40 - an unsupported assumption.
--
Hard work pays off in the future. Laziness pays off now.
/\ /\ /\ /
/ \/ \ u e e n / \/ a w a z
>>>>>>mue### [at] nawazorg<<<<<<
anl
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Chambers wrote:
> What's really (supposed to be)
> happening on the 19th is that the analog signal will be switched off,
> *not* that the digital signal will be switched on.
Yeah. Don't other people get to use the analog bandwidth, tho?
Anyway, I've probably been reading the opposite side of the propaganda that
you have. Yours definitely makes more sense. :-)
--
Darren New, San Diego CA, USA (PST)
"Ouch ouch ouch!"
"What's wrong? Noodles too hot?"
"No, I have Chopstick Tunnel Syndrome."
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Mueen Nawaz wrote:
> Now you could just add $40 to the cost because of the coupons. But then
> some competitor will offer it for only $60 - and ultimately you'll be
> back to $45.
The potential flaw in this analysis is that there won't necessarily be that
many of these boxes sold. Three years from now, people won't be buying
converter boxes, so the back-and-forth on the pricing might not have time to
settle as much as pure market forces might imply.
--
Darren New, San Diego CA, USA (PST)
"Ouch ouch ouch!"
"What's wrong? Noodles too hot?"
"No, I have Chopstick Tunnel Syndrome."
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Darren New <dne### [at] sanrrcom> wrote:
> Mueen Nawaz wrote:
> > Now you could just add $40 to the cost because of the coupons. But then
> > some competitor will offer it for only $60 - and ultimately you'll be
> > back to $45.
>
> The potential flaw in this analysis is that there won't necessarily be that
> many of these boxes sold. Three years from now, people won't be buying
> converter boxes, so the back-and-forth on the pricing might not have time to
> settle as much as pure market forces might imply.
Still much better than my poor analysis. There really are quite a few
manufacturers though, as well as a large enough demand to drive competition.
As of a year ago, sixteen million coupons had been redeemed, with an estimated
thirty-five million needed, in total. Even with a variety in manufacturing
quality, I'm sure many people, who already don't care enough to have a
compatible TV, would just get the cheapest. Perhaps it does just serve as a
lower bound on price so no one really undercuts the competition just hoping for
large enough volume as a result. If the cost were $20, profit margins would
perhaps be narrow enough that only the largest companies could afford to enter
the ring, relying on huge volume.
- Ricky
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On 2/14/2009 7:59 PM, Darren New wrote:
> Chambers wrote:
>> What's really (supposed to be) happening on the 19th is that the
>> analog signal will be switched off, *not* that the digital signal will
>> be switched on.
>
> Yeah. Don't other people get to use the analog bandwidth, tho?
That's the main problem - the FCC has already auctioned off that
bandwidth, and now Congress is saying it's not going to be available for
several months!
> Anyway, I've probably been reading the opposite side of the propaganda
> that you have. Yours definitely makes more sense. :-)
Our local paper has printed statements about the various stations in the
area, and they're ALL planning on going ahead with the switch anyway.
They way they put it, they would have made the switch *sooner* if they
had been allowed.
I think it was PBS that said delaying the switch would cost them
something like $40 million in electricity alone. They are REALLY
looking forward to the lower power requirements of digital broadcast :o
--
...Chambers
www.pacificwebguy.com
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On 2/14/2009 7:01 PM, Mueen Nawaz wrote:
> Chambers wrote:
>> I'm willing to bet that we could have converter boxes for<$20 right now
>> if Congress hadn't come up with that coupon plan.
>>
>> After all, if you know for a fact that every item you sell has a $40
>> discount, doesn't it make sense to sell it for $40+x?
>
> Nope. Let's say that without the coupon program, the only way to be
> profitable was to sell it at $45.
DTV has been around about as long as DVD players, and it looks like the
converters will go away at about the same time as DVD players do (being
replaced by BluRay and all).
Fully functional DVD players can be had for $20. The converter boxes,
lacking moving parts & a laser, *should* be even cheaper. All you
really need is a chip & a DAC.
Sure, they would have been quite expensive a few years ago, but by now
they should be pretty cheap. Looking online, however, the price has
remained in the $50-$60 range for long enough that I'm certain the
coupons have imposed an artificial floor on the price.
> Your analysis made the assumption that they *could* have been
> profitable by selling it at less than $40 - an unsupported assumption.
True, I'm not involved in the engineering of them, so I couldn't say.
But, honestly, a dedicated-purpose CPU and a DAC? I can't imagine it
NOT being available for a lot less than it is.
--
...Chambers
www.pacificwebguy.com
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