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>> Have you *met* me? I'm about as threatening as a baby panda. :-P
>
> Yes, more likely they'll just LOL. :P
More typically, people do "...oh, it's just HIM" and carry on as they were.
The Trilby helps.
--
http://blog.orphi.me.uk/
http://www.zazzle.com/MathematicalOrchid*
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On 03-Dec-08 21:02, Orchid XP v8 wrote:
> andrel wrote:
>
>> What I sometimes do is point out that there probably have been born
>> less than 12 billion people in total. 6 of them are still alive, hence
>> the statistical support for the idea that everybody dies is rather weak.
>>
>> It is a nice examples to show that most people don't understand
>> exponential growth.
>
> Hmm. How the **** do people compute numbers like this?
You know approximately how many people lived in a certain age and how
old they got. From then on it is a simple mathematical sum.
Say that we have 1000 people in year x and 1010 in year x+1. Assume also
that the average age in year x is 50 (and ignore second order effects
and wars) then 20 people will have died of that 1000 hence 30 were born
that year. There is a lot of room for improvement, but something like
that is the basic idea.
There is a table on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population. Why
don't you write a program to compute it in Haskell? (my 12 billion was
computed by someone else and I only checked that it was roughly in that
order of magnitude. Would be nice to have an estimate and knowing how it
was computed)
If you go back longer, you are less certain, but OTOH the number of
people is so much less than are living now that it does not make much
difference. Remember that homo sapiens has only lived for about
2500-3000 generations. The tail backwards is not so long.
> I mean, how can
> you *possibly* know how many people are alive right now? Obviously it's
> an estimate, but how do we tell if it's even remotely correct? It's not
> like you can *check* it!
Oh yes you can. It is called a census. They have even done that in
china, which is of course the major contributor. I am sure they also do
that in the UK IIRC they also ask you for your religion and recognize it
if enough people answer it. Resulting in klingon and jedi and some other
strange ones to be official religions now.
>
> I still like Warp's "grains of rice" example. (If only I could remember
> who the hell it was about...)
Is that the one where you put one gain of rice in a corner of a
chessboard and double it on the next square? until you have 2^63 at the
last one?
>> And indeed most people look surprised.
>
> Try this: Walk up to somebody, and quietly tell them "you're going to
> die". Watch the look on their face. Seriously, they act like this is
> *news* or something...
Most people know they are going to die (or at least assume so, see
above). This line is mostly used in films and books meaning something
like 'you are going to die very very soon and I don't mean that on a
cosmic timescale'.
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On Wed, 03 Dec 2008 20:37:14 +0000, Orchid XP v8 <voi### [at] dev null> wrote:
>>> Well *obviously* if somebody is likely to hit you, you shouldn't even be
>>> in the same building as them, never mind the same room...
>>
>> That's not the point. Don't you think that walking up to someone and saying "You
>> are going to die" is a little bit threatening?
>>
>> "You are going to die"
>> "Yes, but not before you, bampot" WHACK!
>
>Have you *met* me? I'm about as threatening as a baby panda. :-P
Only in your own eyes. You are a big fit looking fella. I would think twice
about having a fight with you.
--
Regards
Stephen
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>> Hmm. How the **** do people compute numbers like this?
> You know approximately how many people lived in a certain age and how
> old they got. From then on it is a simple mathematical sum.
Yeah. My problem is how you arrive at this crucial first step.
>> I mean, how can you *possibly* know how many people are alive right
>> now? Obviously it's an estimate, but how do we tell if it's even
>> remotely correct? It's not like you can *check* it!
> Oh yes you can. It is called a census. They have even done that in
> china, which is of course the major contributor. I am sure they also do
> that in the UK IIRC they also ask you for your religion and recognize it
> if enough people answer it. Resulting in klingon and jedi and some other
> strange ones to be official religions now.
How can you be sure it's accurate? Maybe it says that there are 20,000
people in city X, but actually only 50% of the population replied. (Or
something.)
Sure, you have birth certificates and death certificates, but again, how
do we know those cover *everybody*? (Surely it must be pretty
comprehensive, but totally? Hmm.)
>> I still like Warp's "grains of rice" example. (If only I could
>> remember who the hell it was about...)
>
> Is that the one where you put one gain of rice in a corner of a
> chessboard and double it on the next square? until you have 2^63 at the
> last one?
Yeah, that one.
Apparently 2^63 grains of rice is more rice than has ever existed in all
of Earth's history, or something absurd like that...
(Damn, I *wish* there was a way of reliably finding out numbers like that!)
>> Try this: Walk up to somebody, and quietly tell them "you're going to
>> die". Watch the look on their face. Seriously, they act like this is
>> *news* or something...
>
> Most people know they are going to die (or at least assume so, see
> above). This line is mostly used in films and books meaning something
> like 'you are going to die very very soon and I don't mean that on a
> cosmic timescale'.
Ah. So you mean, by telling somebody something you're assumed to be
implying that it will happen in an unusual way? (E.g., "soon".)
--
http://blog.orphi.me.uk/
http://www.zazzle.com/MathematicalOrchid*
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>> Have you *met* me? I'm about as threatening as a baby panda. :-P
>
> Only in your own eyes. You are a big fit looking fella. I would think twice
> about having a fight with you.
Heh. That's amusing... I've been in 3 fights in my entire life. If you
can even call them that. And hell, I get breathless just walking up
stairs. :-P
Still, you can see why I generally just don't talk to *anybody*. It's a
reasonably good way to avoid being punched. Just for good measure, I try
not to look people in the eye either...
--
http://blog.orphi.me.uk/
http://www.zazzle.com/MathematicalOrchid*
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On 03-Dec-08 22:44, Orchid XP v8 wrote:
>>> Hmm. How the **** do people compute numbers like this?
>> You know approximately how many people lived in a certain age and how
>> old they got. From then on it is a simple mathematical sum.
>
> Yeah. My problem is how you arrive at this crucial first step.
>
>>> I mean, how can you *possibly* know how many people are alive right
>>> now? Obviously it's an estimate, but how do we tell if it's even
>>> remotely correct? It's not like you can *check* it!
>
>> Oh yes you can. It is called a census. They have even done that in
>> china, which is of course the major contributor. I am sure they also
>> do that in the UK IIRC they also ask you for your religion and
>> recognize it if enough people answer it. Resulting in klingon and jedi
>> and some other strange ones to be official religions now.
>
> How can you be sure it's accurate? Maybe it says that there are 20,000
> people in city X, but actually only 50% of the population replied. (Or
> something.)
>
> Sure, you have birth certificates and death certificates, but again, how
> do we know those cover *everybody*? (Surely it must be pretty
> comprehensive, but totally? Hmm.)
People know they are not counting everyone so they also estimate how
many they missed. I leave that one as an exercise to the reader.
>>> I still like Warp's "grains of rice" example. (If only I could
>>> remember who the hell it was about...)
>>
>> Is that the one where you put one gain of rice in a corner of a
>> chessboard and double it on the next square? until you have 2^63 at
>> the last one?
>
> Yeah, that one.
Then it is nor Warp's but slightly older, assuming that Warp is as old
as he claims and not one of the secret millennium old persons.
> Apparently 2^63 grains of rice is more rice than has ever existed in all
> of Earth's history, or something absurd like that...
>
> (Damn, I *wish* there was a way of reliably finding out numbers like that!)
GIYF http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem
>>> Try this: Walk up to somebody, and quietly tell them "you're going to
>>> die". Watch the look on their face. Seriously, they act like this is
>>> *news* or something...
>>
>> Most people know they are going to die (or at least assume so, see
>> above). This line is mostly used in films and books meaning something
>> like 'you are going to die very very soon and I don't mean that on a
>> cosmic timescale'.
>
> Ah. So you mean, by telling somebody something you're assumed to be
> implying that it will happen in an unusual way? (E.g., "soon".)
In most cases, yes. In your case it may simple serve as a form of self
mutilation by proxy.
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>> How can you be sure it's accurate? Maybe it says that there are 20,000
>> people in city X, but actually only 50% of the population replied. (Or
>> something.)
>>
>> Sure, you have birth certificates and death certificates, but again,
>> how do we know those cover *everybody*? (Surely it must be pretty
>> comprehensive, but totally? Hmm.)
>
> People know they are not counting everyone so they also estimate how
> many they missed. I leave that one as an exercise to the reader.
Hmm. Looks unsolvable...
>>>> I still like Warp's "grains of rice" example. (If only I could
>>>> remember who the hell it was about...)
>>>
>>> Is that the one where you put one gain of rice in a corner of a
>>> chessboard and double it on the next square? until you have 2^63 at
>>> the last one?
>>
>> Yeah, that one.
>
> Then it is nor Warp's but slightly older, assuming that Warp is as old
> as he claims and not one of the secret millennium old persons.
Well no, but he mentioned it most recently. ;-)
(I actually read about it originally from Simon Singh...)
>> Ah. So you mean, by telling somebody something you're assumed to be
>> implying that it will happen in an unusual way? (E.g., "soon".)
>
> In most cases, yes. In your case it may simple serve as a form of self
> mutilation by proxy.
You may have something there...
--
http://blog.orphi.me.uk/
http://www.zazzle.com/MathematicalOrchid*
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On Wed, 03 Dec 2008 21:47:26 +0000, Orchid XP v8 <voi### [at] devnull> wrote:
>
>Heh. That's amusing... I've been in 3 fights in my entire life. If you
>can even call them that. And hell, I get breathless just walking up
>stairs. :-P
>
Well I've only been in about 3 real ones myself and no one got hurt.
>Still, you can see why I generally just don't talk to *anybody*. It's a
>reasonably good way to avoid being punched. Just for good measure, I try
>not to look people in the eye either...
That can work both ways sometimes it is a good idea.
--
Regards
Stephen
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On 03-Dec-08 23:02, Orchid XP v8 wrote:
>>> How can you be sure it's accurate? Maybe it says that there are
>>> 20,000 people in city X, but actually only 50% of the population
>>> replied. (Or something.)
>>>
>>> Sure, you have birth certificates and death certificates, but again,
>>> how do we know those cover *everybody*? (Surely it must be pretty
>>> comprehensive, but totally? Hmm.)
>>
>> People know they are not counting everyone so they also estimate how
>> many they missed. I leave that one as an exercise to the reader.
>
> Hmm. Looks unsolvable...
Think again. Does the police know what houses are used by illegal
immigrants? Do they know how many people live in such houses? Did they
raid some of them before? Do kids go to school? Do illegal immigrants
sometimes go to see a doctor? Do they work? Are shops and workplaces
sometimes checked if everybody is legal? Do they have accounts at the banks?
There are numerous occasions where you can find out something about
illegal people not who they are but at least how many.
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andrel wrote:
> There are numerous occasions where you can find out something about
> illegal people not who they are but at least how many.
Plus, you can do something like mail out the forms to ten cities, then go
door to do through one entire city asking explicitly, and see what the
difference is and multiply by ten. I.e., you can take a small sample to
estimate how many people don't answer.
--
Darren New, San Diego CA, USA (PST)
The NFL should go international. I'd pay to
see the Detroit Lions vs the Roman Catholics.
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