On 03-Dec-08 22:44, Orchid XP v8 wrote:
>>> Hmm. How the **** do people compute numbers like this?
>> You know approximately how many people lived in a certain age and how 
>> old they got. From then on it is a simple mathematical sum.
> 
> Yeah. My problem is how you arrive at this crucial first step.
> 
>>>  I mean, how can you *possibly* know how many people are alive right 
>>> now? Obviously it's an estimate, but how do we tell if it's even 
>>> remotely correct? It's not like you can *check* it!
> 
>> Oh yes you can. It is called a census. They have even done that in 
>> china, which is of course the major contributor. I am sure they also 
>> do that in the UK IIRC they also ask you for your religion and 
>> recognize it if enough people answer it. Resulting in klingon and jedi 
>> and some other strange ones to be official religions now.
> 
> How can you be sure it's accurate? Maybe it says that there are 20,000 
> people in city X, but actually only 50% of the population replied. (Or 
> something.)
> 
> Sure, you have birth certificates and death certificates, but again, how 
> do we know those cover *everybody*? (Surely it must be pretty 
> comprehensive, but totally? Hmm.)

People know they are not counting everyone so they also estimate how 
many they missed. I leave that one as an exercise to the reader.

>>> I still like Warp's "grains of rice" example. (If only I could 
>>> remember who the hell it was about...)
>>
>> Is that the one where you put one gain of rice in a corner of a 
>> chessboard and double it on the next square? until you have 2^63 at 
>> the last one?
> 
> Yeah, that one.

Then it is nor Warp's but slightly older, assuming that Warp is as old 
as he claims and not one of the secret millennium old persons.

> Apparently 2^63 grains of rice is more rice than has ever existed in all 
> of Earth's history, or something absurd like that...
> 
> (Damn, I *wish* there was a way of reliably finding out numbers like that!)

GIYF http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem

>>> Try this: Walk up to somebody, and quietly tell them "you're going to 
>>> die". Watch the look on their face. Seriously, they act like this is 
>>> *news* or something...
>>
>> Most people know they are going to die (or at least assume so, see 
>> above). This line is mostly used in films and books meaning something 
>> like 'you are going to die very very soon and I don't mean that on a 
>> cosmic timescale'.
> 
> Ah. So you mean, by telling somebody something you're assumed to be 
> implying that it will happen in an unusual way? (E.g., "soon".)

In most cases, yes. In your case it may simple serve as a form of self 
mutilation by proxy.

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