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On 23/06/2011 04:43 PM, Warp wrote:
> Invisible<voi### [at] dev null> wrote:
>> 3. Cars kill far more people than SARS ever has. Yet people are
>> terrified of SARS, and perfectly OK with cars.
>
> Because cars are necessary, and hence the small risk is acceptable.
>
> Sars and bird flu are not necessary and hence any risk whatsoever is
> unacceptable.
Or, to word it differently,
"Cars are unavoidable. SARS is unavoidable."
Just playing devil's advocate here...
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On 23/06/2011 04:36 PM, Warp wrote:
> Invisible<voi### [at] devnull> wrote:
>> Apparently a 2008 estimate suggests that 11.15 million murders are
>> committed per year in the USA. (Emphasis *estimate*.)
>
> I would like to see some credible references to that. 11 million people
> is like nuking New York and a good chunk of its surroundings (New York
> has a population of something like 8 million). Each year.
My source is here:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=murder
No indication of where *their* source is, nor what the confidence
intervals on that figure is. (It *is* only an estimate, after all...) I
note that this is the number of *crimes*, not actually the number of
people murdered. (I'm not sure how these relate; is killing 7 people
counted as 1 crime or 7 crimes? Can killing a single person be several
crimes at once?)
> Given that the US has a population of about 300 million, that kind of
> murder rate would make it deserted in about 27 years.
Disregarding the birth rate, I presume?
I agree though, it does sound a tad large just for the USA...
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Am 23.06.2011 16:02, schrieb Le_Forgeron:
> What about the number of killed people in aircraft per year ?
Far less than in car accidents. Flying is actually the safest way to
travel on a risk-per-distance basis, even before trains.
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On 23-6-2011 19:10, clipka wrote:
> Am 23.06.2011 16:02, schrieb Le_Forgeron:
>
>> What about the number of killed people in aircraft per year ?
>
> Far less than in car accidents. Flying is actually the safest way to
> travel on a risk-per-distance basis, even before trains.
I think that is not true, elevators are even safer.
--
Apparently you can afford your own dictator for less than 10 cents per
citizen per day.
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Am 23.06.2011 19:33, schrieb andrel:
> On 23-6-2011 19:10, clipka wrote:
>> Am 23.06.2011 16:02, schrieb Le_Forgeron:
>>
>>> What about the number of killed people in aircraft per year ?
>>
>> Far less than in car accidents. Flying is actually the safest way to
>> travel on a risk-per-distance basis, even before trains.
>
> I think that is not true, elevators are even safer.
What distance do you travel in a typical elevator?
You really think getting stuck is the worst thing that can happen to you
in an elevator?
Also think outside the box of technical problems. Terrorist attacks are
probably included in the statistics of aircraft travel, so you should
also include physical assaults in the risk assessment of traveling with
elevators.
And if that doesn't prove me right, let's limit the argument to
components of travel perpendicular to the gravitational field :-P
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On 6/23/2011 5:29, Invisible wrote:
> Number of people killed by bird flu: 303 world-wide in total.
> Number of people killed by SARS: 8,273 world-wide in total.
> Number of people killed by cars: 43,000 *per year* in the USA alone.
>
> How about we all go get some frigging perspective here? :-P
Well, one difference is that bird flu and SARS will continue to kill more
and more people unless you do something about it, while cars tend to get
safer over time. Being afraid of natural disasters doesn't help much. Being
afraid of self-replicating diseases does.
--
Darren New, San Diego CA, USA (PST)
"Coding without comments is like
driving without turn signals."
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Am Thu, 23 Jun 2011 19:33:05 +0200 schrieb andrel:
> On 23-6-2011 19:10, clipka wrote:
>> Am 23.06.2011 16:02, schrieb Le_Forgeron:
>>
>>> What about the number of killed people in aircraft per year ?
>>
>> Far less than in car accidents. Flying is actually the safest way to
>> travel on a risk-per-distance basis, even before trains.
>
> I think that is not true, elevators are even safer.
I would also mention the Wuppertaler Schwebebahn
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuppertal_Schwebebahn
which was claimed to be the safest way to travel until the accident in
1999.
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On 6/23/2011 8:54, Invisible wrote:
> On 23/06/2011 04:36 PM, Warp wrote:
>> Invisible<voi### [at] devnull> wrote:
>>> Apparently a 2008 estimate suggests that 11.15 million murders are
>>> committed per year in the USA. (Emphasis *estimate*.)
>>
>> I would like to see some credible references to that. 11 million people
>> is like nuking New York and a good chunk of its surroundings (New York
>> has a population of something like 8 million). Each year.
>
> My source is here:
>
> http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=murder
11.5 million is the number of crimes committed, where "crime" means
"something for which you can go to jail." So that includes stealing a car,
holding up a store, etc.
Total crimes is 3667/100K/year, actual crimes of intentionally killing
someone is 5.4/100K/year, so you're off by about 3 orders of magnitude there.
> No indication of where *their* source is, nor what the confidence intervals
> on that figure is.
My guess would be the UCR part 1. UCR is the FBI's Unified Crime Reports.
> is the number of *crimes*, not actually the number of people murdered. (I'm
> not sure how these relate; is killing 7 people counted as 1 crime or 7
> crimes?
It would be seven, because you can be guilty of killing one of them and not
the other, so the prosecutors always charge you with seven "counts" of murder.
> Can killing a single person be several crimes at once?)
Yes. Murder, assault with a deadly weapon, breaking and entering, etc.
> I agree though, it does sound a tad large just for the USA...
You're counting "all crimes" and think it means "murder".
--
Darren New, San Diego CA, USA (PST)
"Coding without comments is like
driving without turn signals."
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On 6/23/2011 8:33, Invisible wrote:
> 2. There's very little you can do about deadly diseases.
Huh?
What century do you live in? I live in the one after the invention of the
germ theory of disease.
--
Darren New, San Diego CA, USA (PST)
"Coding without comments is like
driving without turn signals."
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Am 23.06.2011 20:45, schrieb Florian Pesth:
> I would also mention the Wuppertaler Schwebebahn
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuppertal_Schwebebahn
>
> which was claimed to be the safest way to travel until the accident in
> 1999.
... and (from the point of statistical analysis) was indeed - until then :-)
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