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29 Jul 2024 22:24:13 EDT (-0400)
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From: andrel
Subject: Re: Statistics
Date: 23 Jun 2011 13:32:53
Message: <4E0378D1.9030508@gmail.com>
On 23-6-2011 19:10, clipka wrote:
> Am 23.06.2011 16:02, schrieb Le_Forgeron:
>
>> What about the number of killed people in aircraft per year ?
>
> Far less than in car accidents. Flying is actually the safest way to
> travel on a risk-per-distance basis, even before trains.

I think that is not true, elevators are even safer.


-- 
Apparently you can afford your own dictator for less than 10 cents per 
citizen per day.


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From: clipka
Subject: Re: Statistics
Date: 23 Jun 2011 14:08:14
Message: <4e03810e$1@news.povray.org>
Am 23.06.2011 19:33, schrieb andrel:
> On 23-6-2011 19:10, clipka wrote:
>> Am 23.06.2011 16:02, schrieb Le_Forgeron:
>>
>>> What about the number of killed people in aircraft per year ?
>>
>> Far less than in car accidents. Flying is actually the safest way to
>> travel on a risk-per-distance basis, even before trains.
>
> I think that is not true, elevators are even safer.

What distance do you travel in a typical elevator?

You really think getting stuck is the worst thing that can happen to you 
in an elevator?

Also think outside the box of technical problems. Terrorist attacks are 
probably included in the statistics of aircraft travel, so you should 
also include physical assaults in the risk assessment of traveling with 
elevators.


And if that doesn't prove me right, let's limit the argument to 
components of travel perpendicular to the gravitational field :-P


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From: Darren New
Subject: Re: Statistics
Date: 23 Jun 2011 14:43:15
Message: <4e038943$1@news.povray.org>
On 6/23/2011 5:29, Invisible wrote:
> Number of people killed by bird flu: 303 world-wide in total.
> Number of people killed by SARS: 8,273 world-wide in total.
> Number of people killed by cars: 43,000 *per year* in the USA alone.
>
> How about we all go get some frigging perspective here? :-P

Well, one difference is that bird flu and SARS will continue to kill more 
and more people unless you do something about it, while cars tend to get 
safer over time.  Being afraid of natural disasters doesn't help much. Being 
afraid of self-replicating diseases does.

-- 
Darren New, San Diego CA, USA (PST)
   "Coding without comments is like
    driving without turn signals."


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From: Florian Pesth
Subject: Re: Statistics
Date: 23 Jun 2011 14:45:33
Message: <4e0389cd$1@news.povray.org>
Am Thu, 23 Jun 2011 19:33:05 +0200 schrieb andrel:

> On 23-6-2011 19:10, clipka wrote:
>> Am 23.06.2011 16:02, schrieb Le_Forgeron:
>>
>>> What about the number of killed people in aircraft per year ?
>>
>> Far less than in car accidents. Flying is actually the safest way to
>> travel on a risk-per-distance basis, even before trains.
> 
> I think that is not true, elevators are even safer.

I would also mention the Wuppertaler Schwebebahn

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuppertal_Schwebebahn

which was claimed to be the safest way to travel until the accident in 
1999.


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From: Darren New
Subject: Re: Statistics
Date: 23 Jun 2011 14:49:21
Message: <4e038ab1$1@news.povray.org>
On 6/23/2011 8:54, Invisible wrote:
> On 23/06/2011 04:36 PM, Warp wrote:
>> Invisible<voi### [at] devnull> wrote:
>>> Apparently a 2008 estimate suggests that 11.15 million murders are
>>> committed per year in the USA. (Emphasis *estimate*.)
>>
>> I would like to see some credible references to that. 11 million people
>> is like nuking New York and a good chunk of its surroundings (New York
>> has a population of something like 8 million). Each year.
>
> My source is here:
>
> http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=murder

11.5 million is the number of crimes committed, where "crime" means 
"something for which you can go to jail." So that includes stealing a car, 
holding up a store, etc.

Total crimes is 3667/100K/year, actual crimes of intentionally killing 
someone is 5.4/100K/year, so you're off by about 3 orders of magnitude there.

> No indication of where *their* source is, nor what the confidence intervals
> on that figure is.

My guess would be the UCR part 1.  UCR is the FBI's Unified Crime Reports.

> is the number of *crimes*, not actually the number of people murdered. (I'm
> not sure how these relate; is killing 7 people counted as 1 crime or 7
> crimes?

It would be seven, because you can be guilty of killing one of them and not 
the other, so the prosecutors always charge you with seven "counts" of murder.

> Can killing a single person be several crimes at once?)

Yes.  Murder, assault with a deadly weapon, breaking and entering, etc.

> I agree though, it does sound a tad large just for the USA...

You're counting "all crimes" and think it means "murder".

-- 
Darren New, San Diego CA, USA (PST)
   "Coding without comments is like
    driving without turn signals."


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From: Darren New
Subject: Re: Statistics
Date: 23 Jun 2011 14:53:27
Message: <4e038ba7@news.povray.org>
On 6/23/2011 8:33, Invisible wrote:
> 2. There's very little you can do about deadly diseases.

Huh?

What century do you live in?  I live in the one after the invention of the 
germ theory of disease.

-- 
Darren New, San Diego CA, USA (PST)
   "Coding without comments is like
    driving without turn signals."


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From: clipka
Subject: Re: Statistics
Date: 23 Jun 2011 15:20:40
Message: <4e039208$1@news.povray.org>
Am 23.06.2011 20:45, schrieb Florian Pesth:

> I would also mention the Wuppertaler Schwebebahn
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuppertal_Schwebebahn
>
> which was claimed to be the safest way to travel until the accident in
> 1999.

... and (from the point of statistical analysis) was indeed - until then :-)


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From: clipka
Subject: Re: Statistics
Date: 23 Jun 2011 15:29:23
Message: <4e039413$1@news.povray.org>
Am 23.06.2011 20:43, schrieb Darren New:

> Well, one difference is that bird flu and SARS will continue to kill
> more and more people unless you do something about it, while cars tend
> to get safer over time.

They would, if usage patterns of cars didn't change. In the early days 
30 km/h would have been fast, traffic density was close to nil, and 
nobody would have even /thought/ about telephones that could be used 
while driving in a car.

Unfortunately, the safer cars get the more careless the drivers become.


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From: Orchid XP v8
Subject: Re: Statistics
Date: 23 Jun 2011 16:00:00
Message: <4e039b40$1@news.povray.org>
On 23/06/2011 07:49 PM, Darren New wrote:

>> I agree though, it does sound a tad large just for the USA...
>
> You're counting "all crimes" and think it means "murder".

The top of the result page clearly says "United States | rate of murder 
and nonnegligent manslaughter".

However, the pod in question does have a tiny piece of text that says 
"overall crime statistics". I didn't notice that. That'll be it, then...

-- 
http://blog.orphi.me.uk/
http://www.zazzle.com/MathematicalOrchid*


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From: Orchid XP v8
Subject: Re: Statistics
Date: 23 Jun 2011 16:03:33
Message: <4e039c15$1@news.povray.org>
On 23/06/2011 06:10 PM, clipka wrote:
> Am 23.06.2011 16:02, schrieb Le_Forgeron:
>
>> What about the number of killed people in aircraft per year ?
>
> Far less than in car accidents. Flying is actually the safest way to
> travel on a risk-per-distance basis, even before trains.

Any random drunk that wants to can stagger into a car and proceed to 
cause utter carnage. You can't really do that with an aeroplane.

A plane undergoes rigorous safety checks every single damned time it 
goes anywhere. You're *supposed* to do that with a car too. You're 
literally supposed to check that all the tires look good, etc., every 
time before you drive off. How many people ever do this?

Planes are guided by air traffic control. They have two pilots. They 
have automated computer failsafes. There's less traffic per volume of 
space to actually hit. Need I continue?

If you did all this for cars, car travel would become a crapload safer 
too. ;-)

-- 
http://blog.orphi.me.uk/
http://www.zazzle.com/MathematicalOrchid*


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