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Does anybody here remember the Industrial Revolution?
It was a time of massive change. The natural order of things, which had
stood of test of time for many centuries, was suddenly swept away.
Bizarre, futuristic new machines made become possible to mass produce
goods in hitherto-unimaginable quantities. Steam locomotives made and
broke the fortunes of entire communities. Suddenly distant towns were
just a few minutes away. Engineering feat such as massive bridges and
towering buildings became a common sight. Impassible ravines could now
be tamed by them. The sky itself seemed almost within human reach.
Even today, people still romanticise about the steam engines. The
locomotives, the massive winding engines, even steam-powered computers.
But, you know, we actually *have* locomotives today! And in a sense,
they're much *better* than what we had before. They're faster, quieter,
more reliable, and require far fewer people to operate. And yet, nobody
really gets excited about electric trains. It's just "too easy".
Likewise, we have electric motors that output far more torque or have a
much higher top-speed than any steam engine, and take up a fraction of
the space. Some of them are remotely operated, so you don't need
technicians at all. And yet... nobody finds this impressive. I guess for
shock and awe, bigger really *is* better...
I think I myself may have lived through a different revolution. When I
was a kid, computers were small plastic boxy things that you hook up to
your TV and play computer games on. Graphics were blurry, blocky and
garishly colourful. The 8-bit era of computer graphics is well documented.
Most people spent the next ten years looking at 8- or 16-colour
graphics. But I had access to an Amiga; my mind was blown by
4,096-colour images and stereophonic digital audio. With enough
simplification, trickery and down-right hacking-the-metal, you could
find games that generate those "oh my god, it looks like a real
photograph!" moments.
Today, my *actual photographs* are digital images!
Flashback may have been limited to 32 colours, but the fluidity of the
main character's motion was astonishingly life-like.
We had had little digital music disks for years, of course. But
everybody dreamed dizzily of the day when a digital *video* disk might
exist, allowing perfect pausing, instant chapter access, and all the
other trippy stuff that CDs already do. But the technology of the time
just couldn't quite handle it. As Amiga Format described it, "the
difficulty is to come up with a compression algorithm sophisticated to
squeeze all the data onto the disk, yet simple enough to decompress in
real-time".
The solution? Well, Moore's law. Computers got faster. Today you can buy
a $15 computer that can decode HD video in realtime without issue.
Ladies and gentlemen, we are all living in the future! We have cheap
audio and video digitising hardware. We have digital films and TV. We
have computer games that render a fully-interactive 3D world of stunning
realism in real-time. We have 3D TV. And nobody really cares any more.
That's the thing. Ten years ago, the idea of being able to actually
*edit* video on a mere *home computer* was... shocking. Sensational.
Stunning. Only people with expensive TV studios can actually *edit*
video. Hell, a camera to merely *shoot* video costs thousands of pounds,
so only the very richest people can afford one.
Yet today, a bunch of bored college students can make a
blockbuster-style full length feature film in their spare time! Complete
with (what appear to be) big-budget special effects, such as lengthy
space battles in full CGI.
You would *think* people would be shouting from the rooftops in awe of
how utterly epic all of this is... But that's the thing. The revolution
has happened. It's over. We're here now. If I could show my teenage self
a guy watching TV live over the Internet, I think my little head would
have exploded. But today, it's a case of "been there, done that". Now it
isn't *hard* any more, it just doesn't seem *impressive*. What was once
futuristic science fiction and become mundane familiar reality.
All this technology, and we use it to make viral cat videos. (Which are
all seemingly copies of each other, I might add...)
Even the prodigious march of CPU power no longer seems to impress
anyone. For one thing, we seem to have hit some kind of a wall with how
fast you can make a CPU run before it requires an active refrigeration
system. So now they want to just add more cores instead. I'm sure they
*could* quite easily gives us not two cores or four cores, but twenty
cores if there was a market for it. But most workloads simply aren't
very parallel.
And you know what? I'm not sure it matters. I think if you could take
the average computer user and somehow make their processor suddenly able
to execute single-threaded code 10x faster, THEY WOULDN'T EVEN NOTICE!
Because it seems to me that today, your PC is almost always waiting for
disk or network access. The CPU is hardly ever the thing you're waiting
for. (Hardcore gaming aside... and even then, most of the hard work is
GPU-limited. GPUs, BTW, have a bazillion cores and it's trivial to add
more...)
The party is over, my friends. We have all this sensational technology,
and nobody even seems to notice any more.
It's as if technology that can just barely manage to perform a given
task is somehow "more impressive" than technology that can trivially
perform it with ease. Even though, logically, the latter is obviously
far superior...
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