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When I was a kid, I used to enjoy watching TV programs about the future.
Stuff like Tomorrow's World and Beyond 2000. Basically programs where
they show you crazy new inventions. Some of them seemed fantastic, some
of them seemed utterly stupid. There aren't that many that I still remember.
I do recall some guy demonstrating a kind of green putty that "sweats"
when you heat it. He took a handful of this stuff, rubbed his hands in
it, picked up a thin bit of copper pipe, and proceeded to blowtorch it.
completely unharmed due to the unbelievable thermal dissipation
properties of the putty.
I especially liked the car security system which involves electrifying
the car seat to several thousand volts. They demonstrated the sparks it
generates, but nobody actually said anything about what it does to a
human being. I'm guessing this isn't legal. ;-)
There was a suggestion that one day, your entire house would be
controlled by a computer. Stuff like, you could put some food in an oven
that doubles as a refrigerator, and when you leave work, you dial a
special phone number which tells the oven to stop refrigerating and
start cooking, and when you get home, your meal is done.
Yeah, well, /that/ never happened. :-P Today of course, it wouldn't be a
telephone number. It would be some kind of Internet operation. But there
are a number of security, safety and reliability questions to consider.
Do you want random strangers to be able to control your oven, or open
all your windows? Probably not. What happens when the system stops
working? On top of that, given that they've yet to come up with a way
for the component parts of your stereo system to communicate with each
other unless they're all from the same manufacturer, the chances of your
entire *house* cooperating are pretty non-existent. ;-)
Another week, they had a plastic key with a microprocessor inside it.
When you stick it in the lock, it transmits a code to the computer in
the lock, which makes the door unlock. [Actually, it didn't. The key
snapped off in the lock, leaving the presenter to tell us all how
wonderful it is, and how this is only a prototype.] It seemed pretty
stupid to me, but today electronic locks are all over the place. They
just don't make them shaped like mechanical keys any more - because
that's silly.
Unfortunately, towards the end of the show, every invention they
featured was "hey, somebody took [random household object] and put a
small computer inside it, allowing it to do [list of largely useless
functions]". I guess that's why they eventually cancelled it; they just
couldn't find genuinely interesting inventions any more.
I do remember them demonstrating the Sony MiniDisk, which *did*
eventually become a commercial product. It was supposed to kill the old
magnetic cassettes. At the time, recordable CDs hadn't been invented. So
while you could *buy* pressed CDs, if you wanted to *record* anything,
the _only_ available option was cassette. The presenter explained how
loud sounds mask out quiet sounds, and MiniDisk uses this effect to
squeeze more data than would usually be possible onto such a small carrier.
(Today of course we know that MiniDisk belongs with Zip and Jazz in the
category of "kind of successful, but not very". Zip disks were supposed
to kill the 3.5" floppy. LS-120 was supposed to kill it. Jazz was
supposed to kill it. CD-R nearly killed it. But in the end, flash drives
are what actually finished the humble floppy. Similarly, cassette was
killed not so much by MiniDisk but by a combination of CD-R and
ubiquitous MP3 players, not to mention the Internet.)
I remember seeing the first automatic speed cameras, and thinking this
was a neat idea. Oh how wrong I was... ;-)
I also remember something rather puzzling. Apparently somebody
discovered that if you etch silicon with a certain kind of acid, it
produces a special microscopic structure which has an unexpected
property: it can transform electricity into like, and the reverse. This
was hailed as the future of IC technology. In the future, we were told,
interconnects on an IC would work using light rather electricity. For
light has one really critical advantage: beams of light can pass through
each other.
By contrast, if you want to move signals around using wires, you either
have to have extremely long and convoluted wire routes to get around all
the obstacles in your way, or complex multiple-layer wiring designs. But
with light, a signal can just go straight from A to B, intersecting as
many other signal paths as you like.
So if this technology is the future... where is it? How come it's
completely vanished off the face of existence?
There seemed to be some suggesting that the entire IC might work by
processing light instead of electricity. I'm sceptical about whether
that could work. I'm not aware of any light-based switching technology.
On the other hand, just using light for implementing long-range
connections? That could *totally* work! By strategically using optical
signals in place of electronic ones, you might be able to drastically
reduce signal path lengths, which reduces propagation delays. More to
the point, if I'm understanding this right, long traces have the problem
of high capacitance too, which an optical signal path would seemingly
also avoid.
So why is absolutely nobody using this stuff? I can only imagine that
the answer is the same as for the 3D IC. In other words, "it's too
expensive" combined with "we haven't reached the hard limits of current
methods yet".
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