On 1/28/2011 10:56 AM, Jim Henderson wrote:
> On Fri, 28 Jan 2011 07:49:33 -0700, Patrick Elliott wrote:
>
>> Only if everyone that does so wins the lotto.
>
> Well, I was being very simplistic - it probably wouldn't be stated as
> "you will win the lotto" but something more generic - "you will come into
> some cash".  That's how that sort of thing actually is done.
>
> So someone who wins the lotto will see it as predicting their winning the
> lotto.  Someone who finds $20 on the street will see that as being
> confirmation that it was "predicted".
>
Interestingly, those that don't either ignore all the times it was 
wrong, or are never heard from again.

>> Otherwise, not so much.
>> Its also rather fiddly. Some morons will take nearly anything as an
>> example of "success".
>
> So, are you saying that being optimistic is moronic?  Because after all,
> optimists tend to take what they see that's positive as a sign of success.
>
> Jim
There is optimism and "blind optimism". The later works on a combination 
of personal, and selective bias. Personal bias means they won't remember 
a damn thing about when it didn't work. Selective bias means that the 
con artist will **never** admit to all the ones that never came back, 
called them a liar outright, or where otherwise annoyed, angered by, 
harmed by, or failed by, the scammer.

Being optimistic when you have a good reason to is not moronic. Most 
people have a whole hell of a lot fewer "good" reasons for the things 
they do than they have mediocre, or even really bad, ones. Using those 
makes you human, which, unfortunately, way more often than I desperately 
wish was true, and amounts to the same thing as "moron".

-- 
void main () {
   If Schrödingers_cat is alive or version > 98 {
     if version = "Vista" {
       call slow_by_half();
       call DRM_everything();
     }
     call functional_code();
   }
   else
     call crash_windows();
}

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