John VanSickle wrote:

> It is the same principle as, for example, a family with eight children, 
> all of whom are girls.  The parents might think that they are due for a 
> boy, but the probability of the next child being a girl is the same as 
> it has been all along.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability

For something like the roll of a dice where you have all the necessary 
information to compute a probability exactly, that works. For something 
with unknown variables, seeing an improbable chain of events probably 
indicates that you have mis-estimated the variables. (E.g., if you have 
eight girls, it could be a total fluke, or there might be an actual 
_reason_.)

Probability is a fickle thing. ;-)

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