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John VanSickle wrote:
> It is the same principle as, for example, a family with eight children,
> all of whom are girls. The parents might think that they are due for a
> boy, but the probability of the next child being a girl is the same as
> it has been all along.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability
For something like the roll of a dice where you have all the necessary
information to compute a probability exactly, that works. For something
with unknown variables, seeing an improbable chain of events probably
indicates that you have mis-estimated the variables. (E.g., if you have
eight girls, it could be a total fluke, or there might be an actual
_reason_.)
Probability is a fickle thing. ;-)
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