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Mike Raiford wrote:
> (Not that I plan any more.. but since this is my first stupid
> probability question. This is sort of in the vein of Andy's classic
> Random Wonderings post series ...Hey, whatever happened to those, Andrew?)
>
> So, here it is. Stupid Probability Question #1:
>
> Suppose you're on a 100 year flood plane. Now ... suppose the last flood
> was some 76 years ago in that area. Does the probability of a flood
> increase as your approach 100 years, or does the probability of a flood
> stay the same?
>
> -OR- is probability irrelevant due to changing conditions?
The probability is based on historical records, and itself could be off.
If the chances of a flood in any given year are not affected by past
history of floods--and this is presumed to be the case for things like
this--then the chances do not increase with the dry spell.
It is the same principle as, for example, a family with eight children,
all of whom are girls. The parents might think that they are due for a
boy, but the probability of the next child being a girl is the same as
it has been all along.
Regards,
John
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