(Not that I plan any more.. but since this is my first stupid 
probability question. This is sort of in the vein of Andy's classic 
Random Wonderings post series ...Hey, whatever happened to those, Andrew?)

So, here it is. Stupid Probability Question #1:

Suppose you're on a 100 year flood plane. Now ... suppose the last flood 
was some 76 years ago in that area. Does the probability of a flood 
increase as your approach 100 years, or does the probability of a flood 
stay the same?

-OR- is probability irrelevant due to changing conditions?

Obviously insurance companies base their flood insurance rates on the 
probability of a flood, and laws are in place to require such insurance 
in areas prone to flooding.

This has probably been worked out or answered by someone, I'm sure... 
but I'm posting here to provoke some thought and discussion. :) Yeah, 
I'm poking the beast with a twig ;)

-- 
~Mike

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