>> Not really more complex, just a game that is played repeatedly and you 
>> have a certain % chance of winning (say 57%).  I just want to know if you 
>> play 10,100, 1000 times what is the *likely* number of wins in some kind 
>> of worst case and best case scenario.  ie it's obviously possible to win 
>> every single game, but that is *really* unlikely, I want to know how many 
>> you'd win with 90% or 99% confidence.
>
> Right. So it's ye olde "2SD = 95% confidence" rule then.

Indeed.  It turns out in my game that you break even if you win 54% of the 
time, and in practise you can only realistically expect to win 57% of the 
time if you are good at the game.  These two facts mean that after even 1000 
games there is still a huge variation in how much profit you can expect to 
make - 95% confidence you will make between -7 and 607 arbitrary units of 
profit.

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