Darren New wrote:
> Sabrina Kilian wrote:
>>> However, if you follow the instructions of "push the button as soon as
>>> you decide which to push", chances are good you aren't aware of your
>>> choice six seconds before you push the button.
>>
>> In that case, the observer does not know which button you will push
>> either, they are only predicting it. 
> 
> But if they predict with 100% accuracy, I'd say they know it.
> 

Have been trying to find a published report on this. I doubt it was 100%
but will keep looking till I find something. I only doubt it because
100% would have been a major jump that I think would have made a bigger
impact, or at least stuck in my brain for longer.

>>>> Actually, that would be a fairly easy prediction if you know the
>>>> person.
>>>>  Introverts are more likely to pick 1, extroverts would be more likely
>>>> to pick 2. You could easily get above 50%, maybe as high as 75% with
>>>> people you know well. With a few leading questions to set it up, you
>>>> could get even higher.
>>> I don't believe you. Certainly not if you repeat the experiment a few
>>> dozen times.
>>>
>>
>> Behavioral psychology. 
> 
> I still don't believe you. Shelton is funny for always picking Spock
> exactly because he's so predictable. If you could actually pick my
> number 75% of the time, I'd be shocked.
> 

Crossed meanings here, I think. I was talking about predicting the
choices, once per person, for a group. For an individual, picking
repeatedly, I dunno what the odds would be. People have a tendency to
favor one number over the other in choices like that, but if they know
what the experiment is they have the choice to try to throw it.

It works easier in large groups, picking from 1 to 10. Just predict that
everyone will pick the lucky number for that culture, and you will be
right more than 10% of the time, simply because more than 10% of people
will pick that number.

Shelton and Spock. . . I think I am missing something here.

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