somebody wrote:
> "Sabrina Kilian" <ski### [at] vtedu> wrote in message
> news:4b0fc0f4@news.povray.org...
>> somebody wrote:
> 
>> To you, maybe that is the case. To me, if I have a 1 in a googolplex
>> chance of getting g^g returned, I would be spending at least 100 bucks.
>> Minutely small chances still have a non-zero chance of occuring. Lets
>> say that, over some time, 100 googolplex people played this chance game
>> once each. Chances are that 100 people would have gotten that massive
>> return.
> 
> Ah but I am not 100 googolplex people. Nor can I play the game 100
> googolplex times. Neither, for that matter, can whole of humanity even if we
> dedicate every second to the job, even if jackpot is infinite. This is where
> naive application of calculating returns fails: We don't have unlimited
> time/tries for games with vanishingly small probabilities to make playable,
> no matter what the payout. See St Petersburg paradox.
> 
> 

Wait, first you set up the hypothetical lottery and, when I propose that
it would be profitable to the people playing, you then argue that the
setup you provided was flawed because no one would ever offer it? You
set up the straw man, I demonstrate that it still doesn't apply, and my
argument is invalid because I argued with the straw man? You picked the
big numbers, I proved that it would be worth the investment. If you want
to argue that small probabilities have no chance of providing valuable
returns, pick numbers that don't reinforce the point you are arguing again.

Besides, once you pick numbers over a googol I assumed you had to be
talking purely hypothetical. We don't have the coin to represent a
googol in any currency, much less a googolplex.

Look, the St Petersburg paradox does not say that the value gained by
the player is too low for the effort the put into it. It doesn't argue
that there is no price that makes it worth playing, quite the opposite.
Any price set for the St Petersburg lottery is a good bet for the
player, if they have the time to play it out. Then you have the value of
time to figure out, some people value it as priceless, while others
place an infinite value on every second. That infinite value does
provide for a nice solution to the St Petersburg problem, though.

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