On 11/15/09 13:57, Warp wrote:
>    Regular seasonal flu kills about 250000 - 500000 people every year
> (http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/2003/fs211/en/). Swine flu has
> killed so far less than 7000 people.

	While I agree that the swine flu fears are probably overblown, I'll 
point out that you also need to look at mortality _rates_, and which is 
more contagious (I don't know).

	According to one page on Wikipedia, the mortality rate (assuming 
infection) for swine flu is at least 10 times higher (this calculated by 
taking the worst case mortality rate for the seasonal flu). The numbers 
may well be skewed for various reasons, though - I don't know how many 
of these had actually been tested for swine flu.

	Also, while the newspapers keep mentioning it (vaccines just arrived 
here, etc), I haven't come across a single person in my actual town who 
is at all concerned - beyond the general consensus that if you have a 
flu and the doctor says it's likely swine flu, then you better stay home 
for a week. No one in my town died so far - a few months ago over 600 
had been suspected of having caught swine flu. I'd expect the number to 
be over a 1000 now.

	Of course, people may be more worried in other parts of the country/world.

>    (If I have understood correctly, the difference between the swine flu,
> and the H1N1 strands in general, compared to other more common influenzas
> is that it can kill healthy young people more easily. But look at the
> numbers. Is a healthy young person worth 100 sick and old peeople?)

	While I don't know about the vaccine, isn't medication for swine flu 
the same as for seasonal flu? So it's not as if the worry over swine flu 
is taking away from people who get the regular flu. Which is perhaps one 
reason why only a tiny percentage of people diagnosed with swine flu 
have actually been tested for it...
	
	OK - Just read that there were concerns that the drive to produce swine 
flu vaccines would affect seasonal flu vaccines - so it may hurt the 
seasonal folks. I'm too lazy to read the rest to see if the swine flu 
vaccine is also effective against the seasonal one...

-- 
Why is the person who invests all your money called a broker?

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