clipka wrote:

> Stefan Viljoen schrieb:
> 
>> That's the thing... what you might do is swamp a single F-22 with eight
>> bogies, or even twelve? Sure it could splash four, or even six, but two
>> might get through. The thing is, the Chinese for example, can -afford-
>> this loss rate, and its still a bonus to them if even one 1950's era

> Japan apparently went into WW2 with a similar mindset, only to find
> themselves running out of planes and pilots in the long run.

Ouch. Again you've torpedoed my whole rationale!
 
> If an encounter between 40 MiGs and 4 F-22s should end up with the F-22s
> running like rabbits and both parties getting away unharmed, while an
> encounter between 40 MiGs and 16 F-22s should end up with the F-22s
.
.
.
> ultimately suffer a shortage of skilled pilots (which was exactly what
> happened to Japan in WW2, up to the point where they devised a tactic
> that would allow them to teach their new pilots only how to survive long
> enough to reach their target).

Ok, I admit defeat here - you're right. I've forgotten that bit of 
history...
 
>> Ok, I partially agree. But a factor in US thinking is always "morale at
>> home". I don't think the Chinese have this same respect for human life,
> 
> You keep talking about China, and what you say is probably true for
> them. But do you /really/ think there will /ever/ be an
> all-conventional-forces-out conflict between the USA and China that
> wouldn't end up going nuclear?

No, I admit I cannot see any conflict with either China or Russia, NOT going 
nuclear. No US president who does not want to be impeached, and no Chinese 
politburo head will say "ok, they've beaten us fair and square". I agree 
they WILL reach for the red button, and it will be the first side that loses 
in a large conventional clash.
 
> And I'm pretty sure neither China nor the USA have any desire to risk
> that.
> 
> Besides, I guess China is also profiting too much from export, and the
> USA too much from cheap Chinese labor, for any side to be too much
> interested in an outright war.

Good point.
-- 
Stefan Viljoen

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