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On 1-7-2009 19:50, Warp wrote:
> andrel <a_l### [at] hotmail com> wrote:
>> There is a general consensus that there is anthropogenic global warming,
>> what is in discussion is whether it will be catastrophic.
>
> Many people here (in Finland) seem to think that global warming will
> mean that some time in the future there will be palm trees in Finland and
> we will all be sunbathing all year drinking from pineapple cups while
> hawaiian music is playing.
>
> For some reason many (not even in the media) seem to be aware of the
> possibility of global warming disturbing the Gulf stream, which may cause
> a new ice age in northern Europe. I believe the absolute worst-case
> scenario which has been estimated is that in Finland the year-average
> temperature will drop to something like -50 degrees, making living here
> basically impossible.
I think the gulf stream change is possible, but that ice age may be
worst case, but as likely as tropical Finland, i.e. several standard
deviations from the center of the gauss curve. At least that is my
feeling, but I did not study all possible effects in detail.
Also my personal feeling is that almost any change in any direction is
bad, at least in the short run (upto my grandchildren's grandchildren at
least). The climate and nature and not to forget human activity like
farming are/were in some sort of equilibrium. It'll take decades or
centuries to reach a new steady state. If the climate keeps changing
during that time we will have a continuous problem.
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