Mueen Nawaz <m.n### [at] ieeeorg> wrote:
> > Calculate the probability, you will find it is equal to one.  Exactly
> > one. That, by definition, means it is guaranteed, or "forced" if you
> > like, to happen.  QED.

>         Yes, by *definition*.

>         Warp asked for mechanics. Invoking mathematics is not invoking any
> physical reasons. The mathematicians have merely defined it that way.
> Which does not mean it will happen.

  As far as I can see, the "mechanics" go like this:

Q: When popping up random values, where is the first point at which the
   works of Shapespeare are forced to appear?

A: At infinity.

  In other words, you would have to pop up an infinite amount of numbers
before you reach the situation where the works must appear. However, no
matter how many values you pop up, they will never be infinite. By definition
you can *not* pop up an infinite amount. You will never reach infinity.

  Thus the works are *never* forced to appear.

  Asking when the works must appear is like asking what is the smallest
real number larger than zero. There's no such a thing. There is no point
at which the works are forced to appear.

  The monkey analogy is thus flawed. No matter how long the monkey hammers
the typewriter, at no point are the works of Shakespeare appearing with
absolute certainty. They may appear, but there's no absolute guarantee.

  There may be mathematical background for the infinity and the certain
probability, but the *monkey analogy* is inherently flawed.

-- 
                                                          - Warp

Post a reply to this message