On 03-Dec-08 23:59, somebody wrote:
> "andrel" <a_l### [at] hotmailcom> wrote in message
> news:493### [at] hotmailcom...
>> On 03-Dec-08 10:15, Invisible wrote:
>>> Nicolas Alvarez wrote:
>>>
>>>> Aaaaa we're all gonna die! *runs around waving arms in the air*
>>> There are few things more certain in life.
>>>
>>> And yet, when I point out this fact, people look at me all surprised...
> 
>> What I sometimes do is point out that there probably have been born less
>> than 12 billion people in total.
> 
> I think the "accepted" figure is about 5 times as many, not that it makes
> much difference.
I vaguely remember also seeing some larger number, but I don't know 
where. Nor what is the 'accepted' figure and by who? My estimate would 
be that 60 billion is much too large perhaps unless you count every 
humanoid for the last 5 million years and not homo sapiens for the last 
50000. Anyway one more reason for Andy to start working, I'd say.

> 
>> 6 of them are still alive, hence the
>> statistical support for the idea that everybody dies is rather weak.
> 
> Look at it another way: So far, there are billions for, none against,  the
> argument that humans don't live beyond, say, 130.

That suspiciously looks like an argument that because in the US no brick 
buildings exist that are older than 200 years brick building can not be 
older than 200 years. ;) Or 3 millennia if you include the rest of the 
world.
You can never rule out someone like Wowbagger, the infinitely prolonged, 
is among us or will be next century.

> It all depends on how you define death.

> 
> One can also make statistical arguments for the doomsday scenario based on
> the principle that our particular existence not likely to be particularly
> significant along the human timeline.

statistical <-> not likely?

> But that might even be an argument for immortality instead of doomsday (if
> there are to live only 120 billion total humans, last 60 practically
> immortal, we again end up in the middle).
> 
> Then again, that argument leads to a "suprise exam" type paradox: Principle
> of mediocrity implies that no generation will ever believe they can possibly
> be the last human generation.
> 
> FWIW, I tend to believe near-immortality will be achieved within, say, 200
> years. In that respect, we would be an extremely unluckly generation.

I sure hope not. I'd like everybody to die before 100 if you don't mind.

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