"andrel" <a_l### [at] hotmailcom> wrote in message
news:493### [at] hotmailcom...
> On 03-Dec-08 10:15, Invisible wrote:
> > Nicolas Alvarez wrote:
> >
> >> Aaaaa we're all gonna die! *runs around waving arms in the air*
> >
> > There are few things more certain in life.
> >
> > And yet, when I point out this fact, people look at me all surprised...

> What I sometimes do is point out that there probably have been born less
> than 12 billion people in total.

I think the "accepted" figure is about 5 times as many, not that it makes
much difference.

> 6 of them are still alive, hence the
> statistical support for the idea that everybody dies is rather weak.

Look at it another way: So far, there are billions for, none against, the
argument that humans don't live beyond, say, 130. It all depends on how you
define death.

One can also make statistical arguments for the doomsday scenario based on
the principle that our particular existence not likely to be particularly
significant along the human timeline.

But that might even be an argument for immortality instead of doomsday (if
there are to live only 120 billion total humans, last 60 practically
immortal, we again end up in the middle).

Then again, that argument leads to a "suprise exam" type paradox: Principle
of mediocrity implies that no generation will ever believe they can possibly
be the last human generation.

FWIW, I tend to believe near-immortality will be achieved within, say, 200
years. In that respect, we would be an extremely unluckly generation.

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