> Or would this be too expensive?

Yup, I think so. For one, this will have to be done for EVERY pixel in the
image (unless the arealight is confined with a spotlight). Once you go into
transparencies and reflections, this complicated lighting technique will
have to be done for every refracted/reflected ray. I don't expect the
analytical method to be faster than the method used right now, as some
objects are quite complicated in themselves, solving them analytically to
find boundaries will surely take longer than simply sampling a set of
points.
For example, add some media, and you're in for a difficult ride.

It might be possible, but the workload to calculate it will be so high that
it'll probably still be faster to use the current adaptive technique.

-- 
"Tim Nikias v2.0"
Homepage: <http://www.nolights.de>

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