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Invisible wrote:
> [As an aside, I always thought a rollover week was a particularly *bad*
> way to try to sell tickets. "Hey, everybody! Last week several million
> people bought a ticket and NOBODY WON! You should hand over all your
> money right away for your chance to not win this week's draw!"]
Consider that the lotto is a tax on people who are bad at math, and you
understand how easy it is to sell.
--
...Ben Chambers
www.pacificwebguy.com
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Chambers wrote:
> Consider that the lotto is a tax on people who are bad at math, and you
> understand how easy it is to sell.
Except it really isn't. It's only a tax on people who are bad at math
*and* who don't understand that risking a small amount isn't the same as
risking a large amount.
--
Darren New / San Diego, CA, USA (PST)
It's not feature creep if you put it
at the end and adjust the release date.
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Darren New wrote:
> Chambers wrote:
>> Consider that the lotto is a tax on people who are bad at math, and
>> you understand how easy it is to sell.
>
> Except it really isn't. It's only a tax on people who are bad at math
> *and* who don't understand that risking a small amount isn't the same as
> risking a large amount.
>
Either way, once you get past the "hand me a one dollar bill 100 times,
and I'll hand you a 10 dollar bill once!", selling anything else on top
of that is relatively easy.
--
...Ben Chambers
www.pacificwebguy.com
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Chambers wrote:
> Either way, once you get past the "hand me a one dollar bill 100 times,
> and I'll hand you a 10 dollar bill once!", selling anything else on top
> of that is relatively easy.
I don't think anyone would play if $10 was the top payout.
--
Darren New / San Diego, CA, USA (PST)
It's not feature creep if you put it
at the end and adjust the release date.
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Darren New wrote:
> Chambers wrote:
>> Either way, once you get past the "hand me a one dollar bill 100
>> times, and I'll hand you a 10 dollar bill once!", selling anything
>> else on top of that is relatively easy.
>
> I don't think anyone would play if $10 was the top payout.
>
OK then, "Hand me a $1 bill 100,000,000,000 times, and I'll hand you a
check for $10,000,000!"
Same thing, different numbers.
--
...Ben Chambers
www.pacificwebguy.com
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Chambers wrote:
> Darren New wrote:
>> Chambers wrote:
>>> Either way, once you get past the "hand me a one dollar bill 100
>>> times, and I'll hand you a 10 dollar bill once!", selling anything
>>> else on top of that is relatively easy.
>>
>> I don't think anyone would play if $10 was the top payout.
>>
>
> OK then, "Hand me a $1 bill 100,000,000,000 times, and I'll hand you a
> check for $10,000,000!"
>
> Same thing, different numbers.
Yes, but the "different numbers" are important.
Give me $1 for a 1/100 chance to win $10,000. Would you do it?
Give me a million dollars for a 1/100 chance to win $10,000,000,000.
Would you do it?
The "different numbers" matter.
--
Darren New / San Diego, CA, USA (PST)
It's not feature creep if you put it
at the end and adjust the release date.
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Darren New wrote:
> Chambers wrote:
>> Darren New wrote:
>>> Chambers wrote:
>>>> Either way, once you get past the "hand me a one dollar bill 100
>>>> times, and I'll hand you a 10 dollar bill once!", selling anything
>>>> else on top of that is relatively easy.
>>>
>>> I don't think anyone would play if $10 was the top payout.
>>>
>>
>> OK then, "Hand me a $1 bill 100,000,000,000 times, and I'll hand you a
>> check for $10,000,000!"
>>
>> Same thing, different numbers.
>
> Yes, but the "different numbers" are important.
>
> Give me $1 for a 1/100 chance to win $10,000. Would you do it?
>
> Give me a million dollars for a 1/100 chance to win $10,000,000,000.
> Would you do it?
>
> The "different numbers" matter.
>
Yes they matter, but in both my examples the odds were extremely against
you coming out ahead.
Actually, I take that back. Those are extremely favorable odds. Now to
prove it, let's you and I play a few times. I'll be the house...
:)
--
...Ben Chambers
www.pacificwebguy.com
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> Yes they matter, but in both my examples the odds were extremely against
> you coming out ahead.
In the UK lottery at least, I think there's a 1 in 14 million chance of
winning the top prize, which is usually several million pounds.
It could take you well over 14 million tries to win it, it could take you
100 tries to win it, it could take only 1. It's the fact that there is a
finite chance that make people play, try asking all the hundreds of people
who have won, I doubt any of them spent anywhere near 14 million pounds on
lottery tickets, everyone believe they *could* be one of these people.
> Actually, I take that back. Those are extremely favorable odds. Now to
> prove it, let's you and I play a few times. I'll be the house...
Are you sure you really want to play, I mean there's a small but finite
chance you'll have to give up everything you own, and then still be in huge
debt for the rest of your life (assuming you're not a multi-millionaire
already).
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>I recall that there was an accident here in town several years ago that was
>also a wrong-place-wrong-time type also. A lady jogger was killed when a
>large branch from an old tree fell and crushed
> her. She was found when a crew came to cut the branch up to haul it away.
> I always wondered if she had been discovered earlier if she would have
> lived...
Yesterday there was a tornado (f2) near Portland, Oregon,
an old lady out walking her bull mastif was blown 20 feet
into a cyclone fence and pinned there by the wind, with
her dog, for 10 or 20 seconds... I wonder what the chances
of such puns occuring would be.
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Tim Attwood wrote:
>> I recall that there was an accident here in town several years ago that was
>> also a wrong-place-wrong-time type also. A lady jogger was killed when a
>> large branch from an old tree fell and crushed
>> her. She was found when a crew came to cut the branch up to haul it away.
>> I always wondered if she had been discovered earlier if she would have
>> lived...
>
> Yesterday there was a tornado (f2) near Portland, Oregon,
> an old lady out walking her bull mastif was blown 20 feet
> into a cyclone fence and pinned there by the wind, with
> her dog, for 10 or 20 seconds... I wonder what the chances
> of such puns occuring would be.
Speaking of which, I was at work when someone came in and asked if we'd
heard about the Tornado alert.
I (literally) laughed at him, thinking it was a joke. Then I realized
they'd done quite a few "tests" of the Emergency Broadcast System that
morning, and maybe I should pay attention to the next one.
Vancouver (which is where the tornado actually was) hasn't had a tornado
since 1976, so it was quite unexpected!
--
...Ben Chambers
www.pacificwebguy.com
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