andrel wrote:
> On 26-5-2009 22:06, Tim Cook wrote:
>> andrel wrote:
>>> Can't be a follow up. This is within a day from when it happened
>>> (where were you earlier? at work) whereas the guy in the first one
>>> already has the check in hand. So either check was by e-mail or he did
>>> the same stunt twice with GTE Visa or the order of the events is
>>> impossible.
>> 
>> Or they weren't reported/entered in the db in real-time.  Neither
>> specifies an exact date.
> 
> No, but nr 2 ends with 'that sounds damn familiar' which implies that 2
> was a conversation after 1 because <crabcakedeathra> is familiar with 1.
> At the same time the check indicates that 1 is after 2.
> 
> My simple conclusion: at least one is a fake.

Someone read the first quote and decided to try it out.

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andrel wrote:
> On 26-5-2009 22:47, Darren New wrote:
>> Orchid XP v8 wrote:
>>> Well, I'm not in retail. I very much doubt the things you're talking 
>>> about are financially significant,
>>
>> You're complaining about your mom taking up too much room with her 
>> stock of tea, and you don't think grocery stores have the same 
>> problem?  ;-)
>>
> Not when his mom is around.

Snap!

-- 
   Darren New, San Diego CA, USA (PST)
   There's no CD like OCD, there's no CD I knoooow!

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> Sure. But your local Tesco is going to buy (and transport) 12,000 tins of 
> beans (or whatever) no matter what, so how many of them *you* buy is 
> irrelevant. And yet, if you buy 10 of them, they give you 10% off the 
> price. (Or, more accurately, if you buy less than 10 they charge you 
> extra.)

Err no, if Tesco are planning to announce a "buy 10 get 10% off" offer, they 
will certainly order a lot more beans accordingly.  Even though you may 
think what you are doing is unique, over the entire shopping population 
there exists a very predictable average of how people will react to such 
offers.  If Tescos couldn't predict that they'd be out of business - and out 
of beans :-)

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> Grocery stores have facilities for storing enough tea to sink a ship.

Except they don't, they have the absolute minimum storage to keep the shops 
in-stock.  Any additional storage is wasted money, not just because of the 
building costs, but because the product could be cash instead, earning money 
in the bank.  Ever heard of Just In Time business?

Where I used to work, even if a truck turned up an hour early to deliver 
stuff (which they knew they couldn't, they usually waited in the street) it 
sometimes wouldn't even be possible to unload because there would be no 
empty slots in the warehouse.

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scott wrote:
>> Grocery stores have facilities for storing enough tea to sink a ship.
> 
> Except they don't, they have the absolute minimum storage to keep the 
> shops in-stock.  Any additional storage is wasted money, not just 
> because of the building costs, but because the product could be cash 
> instead, earning money in the bank.  Ever heard of Just In Time business?
> 
> Where I used to work, even if a truck turned up an hour early to deliver 
> stuff (which they knew they couldn't, they usually waited in the street) 
> it sometimes wouldn't even be possible to unload because there would be 
> no empty slots in the warehouse.

What a remarkably inefficient way to do business...

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>> Except they don't, they have the absolute minimum storage to keep the 
>> shops in-stock.  Any additional storage is wasted money, not just because 
>> of the building costs, but because the product could be cash instead, 
>> earning money in the bank.  Ever heard of Just In Time business?
>>
>> Where I used to work, even if a truck turned up an hour early to deliver 
>> stuff (which they knew they couldn't, they usually waited in the street) 
>> it sometimes wouldn't even be possible to unload because there would be 
>> no empty slots in the warehouse.
>
> What a remarkably inefficient way to do business...

You have a more profitable idea?  Specifying exact delivery times, to within 
+/- 15 minutes is quite common for large factories.  Do you have any idea 
how much raw material a large manufacturing site can get through?  Where I 
worked there were *always* about 3 or 4 trucks delivering material, and 
10-20 being filled simulatenously with finished goods.  It is simply too 
expensive to store enough material and arrange the logistics if you allow 
deliveries to turn up at any time during the day.

Even at my small local supermarket they seem to know exactly when the 
deliveries will be made (they put out cones around the area the truck has to 
reverse).

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>> What a remarkably inefficient way to do business...
> 
> You have a more profitable idea?  Specifying exact delivery times, to 
> within +/- 15 minutes is quite common for large factories.  Do you have 
> any idea how much raw material a large manufacturing site can get 
> through?  Where I worked there were *always* about 3 or 4 trucks 
> delivering material, and 10-20 being filled simulatenously with finished 
> goods.  It is simply too expensive to store enough material and arrange 
> the logistics if you allow deliveries to turn up at any time during the 
> day.
> 
> Even at my small local supermarket they seem to know exactly when the 
> deliveries will be made (they put out cones around the area the truck 
> has to reverse).

This doesn't seem to tally with my experience at all. Most shops will 
tell you an item is out of stock and they typically have *no idea* when 
it will be back in stock. Or they promise it will be back in on date X, 
and it isn't, and then they promise date Y, and it doesn't, and then 
they say a delivery is coming in on date Z, but then they say it hasn't 
come in... You start to wonder how they manage to do business at all!

But anyway, while I can imagine a factory being able to predict how much 
raw materials they need on a given day, predicting exactly how many tins 
of baked beans you're going to sell today is obviously impossible. You 
can estimate it of course, but you cannot possibly predict it exactly. 
And if your prediction is too low, you have an empty shelf. This, 
presumably, is commercial suicide.

Similarly, according to your scheme, if one delivery truck gets a flat 
tire, or makes a wrong turn, or drives to the wrong store, or makes any 
one of a million other simple mistakes, empty shelves result. Surely 
this is no way to do business.

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> This doesn't seem to tally with my experience at all. Most shops will tell 
> you an item is out of stock and they typically have *no idea* when it will 
> be back in stock.

Most shops are no way near as organised as the likes of Tescos or any large 
manufacturing company.  And by no coincidence, they don't make as profit 
either...

> Or they promise it will be back in on date X, and it isn't, and then they 
> promise date Y, and it doesn't, and then they say a delivery is coming in 
> on date Z, but then they say it hasn't come in... You start to wonder how 
> they manage to do business at all!

Exactly.  But ask the store manager of Tescos when the next pallet of beans 
will be delivered and he will be able to tell you to the nearest 15 minutes.

> But anyway, while I can imagine a factory being able to predict how much 
> raw materials they need on a given day, predicting exactly how many tins 
> of baked beans you're going to sell today is obviously impossible.

Based on your sales of the previous days you can easily get an accurate 
prediction with confidence levels, eg 500 tins +/- 50 with 99% confidence. 
So you order 550 tins and you're 99% sure you'll be ok.  Sure, you'll have 
an average of 50 tins left over, but depending on that figure you can modify 
the quantity of the next order.  The optimising part is to keep the number 
of "left over" tins that you have to store to a minimum whilst ensuring the 
risk of running out of stock is close to zero.  You need to give a "cost" to 
the running out of stock scenario, and calculate what is the optimum.  Do 
not underestimate how much maths and stats is involved :-)

> Similarly, according to your scheme, if one delivery truck gets a flat 
> tire, or makes a wrong turn, or drives to the wrong store, or makes any 
> one of a million other simple mistakes, empty shelves result. Surely this 
> is no way to do business.

What is the chance of any of those things happening?  You estimate an actual 
number (eg by counting the number of flat tyres or times when the truck went 
to the wrong store in the past) and work out how much it is likely to cost 
you.  And then you see it is less than building and running a bigger 
warehouse (well I assume you do, as this is how most large companies work).

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Invisible wrote:
> Similarly, according to your scheme, if one delivery truck gets a flat 
> tire, or makes a wrong turn, or drives to the wrong store, or makes any 
> one of a million other simple mistakes, empty shelves result. Surely 
> this is no way to do business.

Tell that to the people delivering concrete, where being a half hour late 
means that the concrete is hardened in the truck and the building you're 
pouring now needs a bunch of work so the new concrete will stick to the old.

-- 
   Darren New, San Diego CA, USA (PST)
   There's no CD like OCD, there's no CD I knoooow!

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>> Surely this is no way to do business.
> 
> Tell that to the people delivering concrete, where being a half hour 
> late means that the concrete is hardened in the truck and the building 
> you're pouring now needs a bunch of work so the new concrete will stick 
> to the old.

Is it possible for concrete to set while it's still in motion?

But sure, that still sounds like a pretty expensive problem...

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